All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Kerry v Tyrone (today, 3.30pm, Croke Park, live on RTÉ2 and Sky Sports Arena)
THE general exercise here is simple: break the game down, analyse it, pick a winner.
You can’t break this afternoon’s All-Ireland semi-final down properly. You can’t analyse it to any great degree. All you can really do is guess.
There are always things we don’t know before any game, but never as many as for this tie.
We do know that, at one point or another in the last five weeks, 17 Tyrone players tested positive for Covid-19.
Who they were, how badly it affected them, how many of them were laid out by it and how many suffered mild symptoms, truthfully nobody outside the camp really knows.
Rumours continue to swirl but until Tyrone line out, nobody will know for certain what it is they’re lining out with.
Tyrone’s management said during the week that their entire squad was back in training. That does not mean they’ll all be fit to start this afternoon’s game, or even take any active part in it.
Feargal Logan had earlier stated that one player had been hospitalised as a result of the virus. The identity and condition of that player is still unknown.
Covid-19 had been the backdrop for the last year-and-a-half, but for the last month since the Anglo Celt Cup headed back to Tyrone, it has been very much in the foreground.
Having threatened not to if they were made to play last Saturday, the Red Hands will be on the Croke Park pitch at 3.30pm today.
What shape they’re in, how physically capable they are of putting it up to Kerry, only they will know.
They’ve gone to great lengths to keep it that way.
On the Second Captains podcast during the week, former Dublin star Paul Flynn said he couldn’t ignore the feeling that Tyrone were laying an ambush for Kerry.
Gavin Devlin’s comments on TeamTalk’s roadshow preview caused more of a stir. The recently-former Tyrone assistant talked about “expos[ing] Kerry” for “what they are”.
What are they, exactly?
Kerry have been football’s heir apparent for a long number of years now. Aside from never being all that far away from the top, they won five All-Ireland minors in a row between 2014 and 2018.
That they never really needed the minor grade to be such a strong production line in a glittering past only solidifies the idea that they will be seriously difficult to stop in the coming years.
Devlin referenced the 2019 semi-final, in which Tyrone completely outplayed Kerry in the first-half but lacked the killer instinct to put the game away.
Shane Enright has since retired. Tadhg Morley, Adrian and Killian Spillane are likely to start from the bench. Otherwise, in name, it’s the same Kerry team.
Except it’s not quite. Two years ago, they were a side waiting for its new leaders to arrive. They had a lot of physical catching up to do, and yet they came within a whisker of stopping Dublin’s five-in-a-row.
They’ve filled out significantly since. And yet defensively, they’re no closer to the answers they’re seeking. Tadhg Morley looked settled at three but has gone backwards again and is on the bench again.
Jason Foley played it against Cork but was taken out of the role after 25 minutes, too troubled by the power of Brian Hurley.
Tyrone have to attack that weakness. They have improved since 2019 as well.
Padraig Hampsey’s return to fitness is huge. He can do any number of defensive jobs. It’s most likely that he’ll be detailed to Sean O’Shea, with Ronan McNamee on David Clifford again.
Michael McKernan’s playing his best football since his breakthrough year. Rory Brennan is reliable. Frank Burns is graduating into the full-time sweeping berth. Peter Harte and a reformed Niall Sludden give them a lot from the wings.
Defensively, individually, Tyrone are better than Kerry.
They’d need to be, because Kerry are better in attack than anyone.
The lack of consistency of selection for Tyrone makes them harder for Peter Keane to suss.
Darren McCurry is flying, but was left out of their first league game. Kieran McGeary’s a nailed-on Allstar but was twice taken off at half-time in games this season.
Niall Sludden didn’t start a league game, Conor McKenna hasn’t found a home, Conn Kilpatrick and Brian Kennedy have only been a midfield pairing for 175 minutes, and Mattie Donnelly finally came to form since he went to full-forward.
The extra two weeks will have given Cathal McShane and Darragh Canavan valuable recovery time, as they will have to Diarmuid O’Connor and Dara Moynihan. What odds on a surprise inclusion, or two, in the Tyrone attack?
The freedom to lace any sort of a ball at a fully-fit McShane was the primary catalyst for that first-half display two years ago. Whether it’s him, Mattie Donnelly or Conor McKenna, they need some form of physical presence in alongside the flying McCurry.
There are too many variables between now and throw-in to be definitive.
Had Covid never happened and this game gone ahead two weeks ago, Kerry would have been raging hot favourites anyway.
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2021 TOP SCORERS
Kerry
David Clifford 8-31 (2-0pen, 0-13f, 0-1 mark)
Sean O’Shea 2-31 (0-19f, 0-2 45s, 0-2 mark)
Paul Geaney 4-7 (0-1 mark)
Killian Spillane 0-14
Tyrone
Darren McCurry 0-37 (0-16f, 0-2 mark)
Paul Donaghy 0-17 (0-8f)
Kieran McGeary 0-10
Peter Harte 1-6
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The theory that they’ve played nobody doesn’t really stack up. Who do they ever play in Munster? In four dry-day league games, they hit 4-21 against Galway, 1-18 against Dublin, 2-15 against Roscommon and then that 6-15 against Tyrone.
It’s been 3-22, 1-19 and 4-22 in the Munster championship. No matter if they’re playing Coalisland Thirds, that’s some scoring.
Tyrone’s path was more jagged and that’s what they will make this. There’ll be no six goals today, no handy passage into a final.
Looking at a bench that potentially has Cathal McShane, Mark Bradley, Darragh Canavan and Tiernan McCann on it, the Ulster champions will match up against most of what Kerry have to throw on.
Killian Spillane is the ace in the hole, the ever-potential match-winner. He’s played 105 minutes across the last four games, all off the bench, and scored 0-10.
Dara Moynihan was in flying form before his quad injury. He’d push Jack Barry out of the Munster final team if he’s fit, and would add to Kerry’s fearsome running power.
With a warm, dry day forecast, Kerry’s kicking game will be incredibly difficult to work with in Croke Park.
When the two sides move the ball with the boot, the cohesion of Kerry’s play is still lightyears ahead. It’s ground into them from knee high. It’s always about the kick, whereas Tyrone are only at the rediscovery stage of that game.
Tyrone have to keep moving the goalposts. Come with something different and then change it up. Keep making it hard for the green and gold to figure out.
Provided their key men are all properly good to go at an All-Ireland semi-final, there are a lot of facets of the game at which they’re the better side.
Kerry have breached (mostly smashed) the 20-point barrier in all seven games and while Tyrone are averaging 18 points themselves, it’s the lack of goals that is the real concern.
The Ulster men have scored four goals this year, compared to Kerry’s 21.
There are pressure points that can be squeezed in the Kerry defence – but Tyrone may not be the side to squeeze them.
All things being equal, Kerry by three.
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TACTICAL TAKE
Working on the presumption that Tyrone have all of their first-choice defenders available to them, they will be the happier side in terms of how they match up defensively.
Ronan McNamee and Padraig Hampsey are Allstar defenders. Michael McKernan was a 2018 nominee for Young Footballer of the Year who’s played his best football for Tyrone this year. Rory Brennan is widely regarded as the best tracker in Tyrone football. And Peter Harte is playing a very different game these days, displaying the fact that he’s actually a very good defender.
McNamee marked David Clifford in the 2019 semi-final, and is likely to do so again. Even though Padraig Hampsey was given the job of Conor McManus in the Ulster final, Monaghan didn’t possess a threat at 11 of the calibre of Sean O’Shea.
The Coalisland man could do any number of jobs but it seems likely he will play on O’Shea, given the fact the Kerry number 11 interchanges so often and plays a lot of his football inside, it’s an easier defensive transition for Tyrone.
Peter Harte is capable but the first thing Kerry would do if they saw that match-up would be to send O’Shea to full-forward, and Tyrone don’t want Harte at full-back.
The rest are a toss-up. Paudie Clifford has been the toast of the vaunted Kerry attack. If Michael O’Neill is fit to start, he could get that job. Tyrone might fancy Michael McKernan could test him going the other way.
Kerry’s defence is harder to nail down. Jason Foley is the only player on their team to have played all 490 minutes this season, and he’ll be at full-back, whether it’s Mattie Donnelly, Cathal McShane or Conor McKenna in there.
Brian Ó Beaglaoich has been a firm favourite of Peter Keane’s too, and seems almost certain to pick up Darren McCurry.
Gavin Crowley didn’t start the Munster final and could miss out again, with Mike Breen having established himself and Paul Murphy fit again.
Gavin White against Conor Meyler seems a near certainty and is as much a Tyrone defensive move as anything, but it could be one of the game’s pivotal battles. Both are in superb form and have become quietly invaluable to their team’s cause.
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LIKELY LINE-UPS
TYRONE
N Morgan
R McNamee R Brennan
D Clifford P Geaney
F Burns
M McKernan
P Clifford
P Harte P Hampsey N Sludden
S O’Brien S O’Shea D Moynihan
C Kilpatrick B Kennedy
D O’Connor D Moran
C Meyler K McGeary C McKenna
G White M Breen T O’Sullivan
P Murphy
D McCurry M Donnelly
B Ó Beaglaoich J Foley
S Ryan
KERRY
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REFEREE: David Coldrick (Blackhall Gaels / Meath)
WHERE TO WATCH: RTÉ2, coverage from 2.30pm' Sky Sports Arena, coverage from 2.30pm
TIMELINE
August 8
“Further to a number of positive Covid-19 tests with members of the Tyrone senior football panel and management, prior to last weekend’s successful Ulster Championship final in Croke Park, it was decided to have all panellists and management tested for the virus.”
Tyrone GAA confirms reports of a significant Covid-19 outbreak within the squad following their Ulster final win over Monaghan. The county requests a two-week postponement of the game with Kerry.
August 9
"This decision was taken following a status report received by the GAA relating to positive Covid cases in the Tyrone panel.”
Having received representation from Tyrone, the GAA confirms it will push the match back by six days to August 21.
August 11
"Based on our experience of Covid to date, and knowing how to get players integrated back into the panel having recovered from Covid, a fairly significant timeline [is] needed. All medical evidence points towards that. Anything we've seen to date definitely reinforces that. So we believe we will struggle still to field a team on Saturday week, given the way the situation stands at the minute."
Brian Dooher, speaking to BBCNI, casts doubt over whether the six-day delay will be enough.
August 14
“This morning, the Tyrone GAA Management Committee has decided that it is not in a position to field its senior football team in the rescheduled All-Ireland football championship semi-final in Croke Park, on next Saturday.
Tyrone release a statement saying that they will not be able to field for the game, raising the prospect of a walkover for Kerry
“All things considered, this has been the most challenging thing I have ever been involved in, in football. I have been in a lot of challenging positions right through the Troubles and onwards. But this has been the most challenging.”
Joint Tyrone manager Feargal Logan underlines the situation
"We find ourselves in a very difficult situation not of our making. We have explicitly followed all Covid protocols and we have taken every precaution to protect our players and management.”
Kerry release a statement saying they will agree to defer the game, but not without a few apparent digs thrown in
August 15
"The GAA would like to acknowledge the co-operation of all of the counties still involved in the championship and it looks forward to working with the government to finalise these arrangements.”
The GAA confirms that Tyrone’s request for a further delay has been granted, and the game will be pushed back by a further seven days, thanks largely to the co-operation of Kerry and Mayo.
