We do not know when an Irish unity referendum will be called, and we cannot say what the outcome may be, but what should be abundantly clear is that the debate is now firmly under way.
Nationalists are putting their case forward confidently, unionists are increasingly feeling the need to robustly defend the status quo, and the unaligned, who will decide the result of the contest, are paying close attention to the exchanges.
Consideration of a border poll was effectively set to one side after the euphoria over the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, with many unionists hoping that the constitutional question had been resolved and most nationalists generally content to await further developments.
The criteria provided by the GFA for facilitating a referendum were vague, and, as been well documented, left the matter to be decided by the British government’s incumbent Northern Ireland secretary of state.
Successive holders of that office were reluctant to clarify the arrangements, until Brexit, opposed by a decisive majority of the northern electorate, came along in 2016 and turned everything on its head.
The points offered in the subsequent discussions have tended to focus on widely conflicting interpretations of voting patterns, but a notable anniversary this week provides us with an opportunity to look back at the UK general election held on October 10 1974, and examine just how much the prevailing circumstances have changed over the last 50 years.
It will be recalled that 1974 was statistically the third worst year in the entire history of The Troubles, witnessing a devastating 294 killings among all sections of our divided society.
The historic first cross-community executive was brought down in its infancy through a loyalist campaign of intimidation and violence organised by the Ulster Workers’ Council, which could not tolerate an administration headed by a unionist and involving Alliance and SDLP representatives, even before the arrival of Sinn Féin, with a limited consultancy role for Dublin ministers.
There were two Westminster elections in the space of eight months, with the second confirming the anti-power sharing forces in the United Ulster Unionist Council (UUUC) in a position of complete domination.
The UUUC, which brought together the Ulster Unionists, the DUP and the former Vanguard movement, managed to win 10 of the then 12 northern seats, with the total unionist vote sitting at almost 63 per cent.
While it is difficult to draw exact parallels, the only Stormont party today with an anti-agreement stance which can be compared to the policies of the UUUC is Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice.
Allowing for the different boundaries which were previously in place, the parliamentary constituencies of North Belfast, South Belfast, South Down, Armagh, Mid Ulster and what was then known as Londonderry were all secured by unionists in 1974, but their equivalents will be held by nationalists for the foreseeable future.
There are now 18 Westminster seats here, and only eight of them, a dramatic drop in symbolic and practical terms, are in unionist hands, with at least two of those in serious danger of being lost the next time round.
The UK general election from three months ago also starkly demonstrated that the overall unionist vote has dropped from 63 per cent to 43 per cent in the space of the last five decades.
Many other factors need to be taken into account, as Sinn Féin did not contest northern elections in 1974 and the level of backing for Alliance has also risen sharply since then.
It will also be accepted that the nationalist share of the vote has remained largely static since the introduction of the GFA structures, although some academics insist that demographic trends mean that it will soon increase significantly.
However, what can be seen is that political unionism is experiencing an irrevocable decline and the unionist majority, in a state designed to keep it in place permanently, has already gone forever.
The results from October 1974 sent out a bleak message to supporters of partnership at Stormont, and those who qualified to vote for the first time before the next UK general election five years later, including this columnist, wondered if events could ever change for the better.
We are already in an entirely unrecognisable climate today, and young people coming on to the electoral register, who are largely disinterested in the mistakes made by unionists and nationalists from previous generations, will make up their own minds about what happens next. It’s game on.
Young people coming on to the electoral register, who are largely disinterested in the mistakes made by unionists and nationalists from previous generations, will make up their own minds about what happens next