Sinn Féin’s downward trajectory in the south continues. The latest polls place the party at 16-17%, a far cry from the heady 36% in summer 2023. The juggernaut from 2020-23 has run into sand.
In the north we don’t know the impact of the last few weeks because there haven’t been any subsequent polls.
A remedy is not so urgent in the north because there are no elections until 2027, but in the south an election looms before the end of next month with the money on November 29.
There are two takeways from the current loss of credibility north and south and from the party’s shambolic responses to the crisis.
First, a slip of one or two per cent in the polls after the humungous pile-on by political opponents and the media north and south isn’t too bad. It’s an indication that, in the south at least, the general public aren’t as obsessed as politicians and journalists are with who knew what, when or how long they covered it up. For the public at large, housing and immigration remain dominant.
It’s also the case that as the election campaign gets into gear, the race will tighten. Already Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are neck and neck: 20-22%. Already they are beginning to snap at each other and relations will fray more in the coming weeks. It’s obvious that the Greens, now on 3%, will be massacred.
In the new 174-seat Dáil on those poll figures, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together won’t be able to form a government. They’ll be coming in with 37 and 38 seats respectively, a long way from the 87-plus needed for a majority. Current polls give Sinn Féin about 30 seats.
Two other factors to be taken into account are that, first, a substantial number of people aren’t interested in party politics (incredible as that may seem to politicians) and don’t make their minds up until just before voting.
Secondly, the volatile state of the Irish electorate, with support for a vast spectrum of independents fluctuating between 15% and 22%. In short, Sinn Féin may not have taken as big a hit as the hundreds of column inches and hostile news reports suggest.
The second takeaway from the current crisis is more important and it’s as follows. Sinn Féin has no idea how to run a party.
Mary Lou McDonald’s initial response to revelations was that the party needed an overhaul of governance. That’s not enough.
The party for too long has relied on long-term supporters, former IRA volunteers, relatives and loyalists. Some may have political skills – many haven’t – but they know absolutely nothing about management or governance.
All parties employ relatives, close friends and loyalists – too many – but a party which lets unqualified people like this run its systems is doomed.
The result is the past few weeks. It’s obvious Sinn Féin has no systems. Ignorance and incompetence thrive because it is reluctant to ditch long-term party apparatchiks, some obvious dopes.
Political opponents and enemies accuse Sinn Féin of trickery, deception and malpractice. It’s simpler. Devoid of professional governance and managerial talent in the party, Sinn Féin political figures often haven’t a clue what’s going on.
They do interviews floundering all over the place, then somebody comes up and tells them what they should have been told before speaking. In this crisis the resignation of their best press officer, Seán Mag Uidhir, hasn’t helped the party response.
In McMonagle’s case, who knew he was working for three elected representatives, occasionally two at the same time, as well as being a press officer? Who was in charge? No governance, no system.
Relations between politicians and party officials are like those between racing drivers and engineers. The engineers set up the car and the drivers assume it will take any stress they exert. Sinn Féin have no engineers. The attitude is “Ach, sure so and so will do that OK”, even though ‘so and so’ hasn’t a scooby.
The short answer is that Sinn Féin have to professionalise the party, but years of wariness and suspicion make that difficult.
Bringing in professionals means letting ‘strangers’ know the party’s internal workings. They don’t trust ‘strangers’, so they can’t employ real talent or take advice from objective outsiders. The result is the old computer input slogan GIGO: garbage in, garbage out.
Sinn Féin in the south has moved to professionalise, but not in the north. That’s painfully evident. No wonder Mary Lou McDonald has betrayed annoyance, not to say anger, about the mess in the north.
The north has leisure to reform but that option isn’t open to the party in the south. All McDonald can hope is that there isn’t another attack of ‘foot in mouth’ disease north of the border in the next couple of weeks.