Those sighing with relief after the Dáil election, believing a border poll is going to be put on the back burner for at least another four years, sound like they are inadvertently paraphrasing Carson’s Commons speech on March 9 1914.
He was speaking against a government amendment which would allow what was called ‘the county option’, whereby any county could vote to opt out of Home Rule for six years.
Carson said: “We do not want sentence of death with a stay of execution for six years”.
A bit OTT, but he was given to overwrought rhetoric. He knew that whether four years, six years, the matter in hand will not go away, but instead will become more pressing.
What form that will take over the new Dáil, and even whether the Dáil will last five years, is too early to say. It will depend on many variables, but first and foremost on the composition of the coalition.
If it’s ‘FFG’, as their detractors now call the two civil war parties, plus five or six Independents, then any pressure to plan for the inevitable referendum will come from a very formidable coherent opposition of Sinn Féin, Labour and Social Democrats – 61 TDs.
Incidentally, it’s worth mentioning that the opposition will be led by women – Mary Lou McDonald, Ivana Bacik and Holly Cairns – which is a noteworthy breakthrough in its own right.
Southern politicians, when asked about a border poll, always dissemble with “Now is not the time.”
But the fact is that Sinn Féin, the SDLP, Leo Varadkar and all advocates of a reunification referendum are asking, with the Brexit disaster in mind, for planning to begin.
Sinn Féin has laid out a detailed programme (which they will not be able to implement) culminating in a poll in 2030.
In the Fianna Fáil manifesto, under the heading ‘Future Constitutional Arrangements’, there are four paragraphs, including this one.
“Undertake significantly more research to understand the full extent of differences and similarities between the current jurisdictions on vital issues. Research to date shows that there is a real need to do this so that a meaningful proposal for future arrangements can be developed and have any hope of ratification by the people.”
In normalspeak that means preparing for a referendum that passes. This is part of five pages on the shared island agenda which are also worth reading for their plans to develop the all-Ireland economy, infrastructure and education. It’s important because they will be implemented since Fianna Fáil is the biggest party in government.
The Labour party manifesto is also carefully thought out and places great emphasis on the health and economic benefits of the all-Ireland economy, which would be of great importance to someone like Louth’s Labour TD Ged Nash, who was Minister of State for Business & Employment from 2014-16.
Reunification isn’t about ‘taking over the north’. It’s not just a political project, though it is that too.
There are huge economic benefits which are becoming ever more obvious now that Sinn Féin control all the border councils in the north and are linking with their counterparts in the south.
There are economies of scale. There are advantages in avoiding stupid duplication north and south that unionists insist on in case of contamination by southern contacts.
You may ask why there’s not much interest in unity in the electorate in the south. Simple: there’s no referendum and there’s no planning for one. So why would people be interested in voting for something which isn’t on the agenda? It’ll be different when it is, you better believe it.
The Oireachtas all-party Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement this year produced a landmark report recommending the Irish government begin planning immediately for a referendum.
The report is the first of a series which will examine all aspects of preparation, structures, costs, procedures. The ESRI has already been working on the social and economic aspects and published reports. Some of its experts gave evidence to the committee.
When the planning is done, it’ll be presented to the people. It’s coming. First things first.