The result of Friday’s election confirms a continuation of the transformation in southern politics in the post Celtic Tiger era. In 2007, the two parties who together dominated the Dáil for almost a century secured more than two-thirds of the popular vote.
Some 17 years later, combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael sits just above 40%, ostensibly an inarguable indication that a majority of the electorate rejects the status quo.
Sinn Féin has shown for the second general election in succession that it is now a force of equal standing with the south’s traditional ‘Big Two’, while significant support for the smaller parties and independents reflects a disparate, pluralist political culture.
Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same.
When all the votes are counted and all 174 TDs elected to the expanded 34th Dáil, the likelihood is that Simon Harris and Micheál Martin’s partnership will prevail. The demise of the Green Party, which looks on course to lose all 12 seats, means there will be a slightly different hue to the coalition that emerges but its look will be all too familiar.
The upper hand in this scenario will again be with Fianna Fáil, which despite trailing in third place in Friday night’s exit poll, is on course to emerge with up to ten more seats than Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil’s performance demonstrates that while it has been written-off on numerous occasions and accused of being out of touch with younger voters, for the most part the party’s base remains strong.
Meanwhile, given the momentum of what was termed in recent months the ‘Harris hop’, Fine Gael will likely be disappointed by how it has performed. The outgoing taoiseach, around who much of his party’s campaign was based, struggled in the final days before polling, though the decision of a significant number of incumbent Fine Gael TDs not to contest the election, doesn’t appear to have impacted on its vote to a notable extent.
Sinn Féin is likely to secure the second highest share of seats but will be ambivalent about the election outcome. Looking at the result in a short-term context, the party will be happy with how it fared given June’s local and European election results and more recent polling.
Mary Lou McDonald’s party recovered some ground during the campaign but compared to 2020, when running too few candidates was blamed for a failure to optimise its support, the latest result, which show a drop of more than five percentage points on first preferences, will be disheartening.
With the overall result indicating that a majority, albeit a slim, fragmented one, is dismayed by the incumbent government, Sinn Féin would be expected to do greater electoral damage to its main rivals.
Mid-term polling which put Sinn Féin’s vote share as high as 37% suggested the party was on course to lead the next government, with Mrs McDonald making history as the first female taoiseach, yet that advantage evaporated, suggesting its support is volatile to say the least.
Perhaps even the most dyed-in-the-wool republican would concede that there’s a grain of truth in Paschal Donohoe’s jibe about Sinn Féin being “the weakest opposition party in Europe”.
Mrs McDonald was putting on a brave face on Sunday and speculating about the possibility of forming a government but a major rift between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael notwithstanding, Sinn Féin is unlikely to be part of the next coalition.
Questions about the Dublin Central TD’s leadership are expected to emerge, most probably in those sections of the southern media that are Sinn Féin averse, but without an obvious replacement agitating in the wings, a sudden change isn’t on the cards.
The new government could be in place by mid-December or early in the new year, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael joined by a left-leaning minority partner, as both Labour and the Social Democrats are expected to make gains.
Other takeaways from this election are what looks like being a historically low turnout at around 60% and the fact that immigration, often cited as the reason Sinn Féin’s support slumped, seemingly had little influence on voters’ choices.
Amid the fallout in the coming days expect to see growing speculation about increased ties between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, alongside ruminations on why the left can’t consolidate and challenge the centre-right establishment.
