Compared to the 63-days of shenanigans that followed the Republic’s 2016 general election, the formation of new government has been comparatively swift.
If things go according to plan, Micheál Martin will be nominated as taoiseach next Wednesday, heading a new government – until at least late 2027 – that looks quite similar to the last, in that it is made up primarily of personnel from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The key difference is that rather than the Greens as a junior partner, this government will rely on the support of a motley crew of independents, which among others includes Michael Lowry and Danny and Michael Healy Rae, the latter linked to a junior ministry.
Several independents are expected to be given junior ministerial roles but their main reward is expected to be more pork barrel than influencing national policy.
With 95 TDs (out of 160), the new government has a solid majority but the presence of independents inevitably raises questions about its long-term stability.
Given that the two Treaty parties remain at the helm, there’s an obvious expectation that policy-wise we’ll have more of the same, with potential adjustments to take into account the Trump administration in the US, which may well sneeze and give the 26 counties a severe cold.
More of the same will also likely spell a continuation of the Republic’s many contradictions. It’s a dynamic society, with a successful economy, albeit one where growth has slowed recently, yet all is not well south of the border.
Agitation around the immigration issue appears to have abated but the housing crisis still looms large and public services are under pressure.
Radical solutions from two traditionally conservative parties are unlikely though given the election result, it would appear that safe approach is what voters prefer – for the meantime at least.
In terms of cross-border engagement, the taoiseach-in-waiting will continue with his Shared Island initiative, with an extra £1bn pledged, but despite manifesto commitments to Irish unity by both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, there’s as yet no signal of the step change northern nationalists would like to see.
