The north’s electricity transmission system operator says it expects there will be sufficient generation to meet demand over winter “in normal operating conditions”
But in its annual winter outlook , SONI (System Operator for Northern Ireland) noted some hurdles over recent months, with unforeseen forced outages of generation, and has highlighted that some potential challenges may remain in the lead up to the winter period.
It also pointed out that from July to September this year, the north’s system experienced a number of prolonged forced generator outages which it said led to tight margins at times, impacting the system’s ability to accommodate planned generator and transmission maintenance.
There were also two “system alerts” during the summer due to insufficient levels of dispatchable generation, and these challenges will remain ahead of the winter period.
SONI is responsible for ensuring power can flow safely, securely and reliably from where it is generated to where it is needed. It does not generate or sell electricity, with its role being to balance consumer demand, in real-time, with the generation made available by those companies who secure contracts through the all-island market for electricity.
Director of operations Emma Morris said: “Our latest study shows that we expect there to be sufficient generation to meet consumer demand this coming winter in normal operating conditions, even when we consider the expected natural variation of demand, renewable generation, and interconnector flows. In comparison to last winter, our assessments point to an improved picture.
“Operating any power system is inherently complex, so our assessments are based on normal operating conditions and the expectation that our full portfolio of conventional generation is made available to us. At this stage, our analysis indicates the likelihood of any disruption for consumers due to insufficient generation as being small.
“But our winter outlook does note some recent challenges the power system has experienced with unforeseen forced outages of conventional generation. While some of these challenges may remain in the period leading up to winter, our experienced grid control engineers have tried and tested plans in place to minimise the risk of any disruption.
“As with previous winters, there is a risk of tight days on the system, should periods of cold, still weather overlap with forced or unplanned outages of conventional generation.”
She added: “We are continually balancing a wide-range of external and variable factors, including the integration of new, weather-dependent sources of clean generation, the need for planned outages for essential maintenance and unforeseen forced outages, and the timely delivery of new generation by the companies who secure contracts through the market. All power systems around the world are managing these challenges which will be mitigated in the future with new technologies such as long duration energy storage.”
