This summer, our middle son made his way to America to earn a few dollars, working casually in a bar and on a farm before heading to the west coast for a couple of weeks of sightseeing and spending. It’s a well worn student path, and I was glad that after Covid interruptions he was able to take full advantage of the long summer holidays, which I always thought was the best feature of student life.
Portland was his initial destination, and on his return he made a casual observation that the city centre was run down, not too many people around and that the outer boroughs were busier and appeared to be safer and more populated.
The same applied to San Francisco, and at about the time Conor was settling back in Belfast, I read a piece by respected economic commentator David McWilliams on the current state of Dublin.
McWilliams wrote: “Unfortunately, the atmosphere is changing. Time and again, I hear people say ‘I don’t go into town any more’. Something has shifted in recent months and this could be the beginning of an extremely negative urban trend. A combination of high rents, crime, a lack of venues, far too many commercial offices, a lack of residential developments and, of course, exorbitant prices are slowly throttling the city.”
Read that passage again and think about Belfast. McWilliam’s description - and his alarm - about Dublin could be equally applied 100 miles up the road. He also referenced San Francisco, which he reckons is the epitome of the now well established ‘doughnut effect’, where the centre of a city becomes hollowed out, negatively impacted by rents and prices that have been driven too high, people and businesses move out.
When the businesses move out, the tax income plummets and the provision of vital public services is subsequently squeezed.
The doughnut effect is driven by a vicious circle. Office occupancy rates in San Francisco have fallen by 50% since 2022, homelessness has increased, public services have been drastically cut back and the city is heading in the wrong direction.
If that level of decline is evident in San Francisco and is possibly on the horizon in Dublin, we need to be on high alert that Belfast doesn’t join that list.
Just last week the Irish News reported that the ground floor of the new Deloitte building on Bedford Street, one of our main thoroughfares and a busy part of the commercial heart of the city, will be opened as a (mother) cafe. The demand for office space is just not there.
Deloitte has said that despite extensive efforts, a commercial tenant could not be found. They put that down to more former office employees working from home post pandemic - a phenomenon repeated across the city and indeed across the world.
This new post-Covid commercial context is one of the reasons why the existing plans for what is referred to as Tribeca, in the Cathedral Quarter of Belfast, just don’t work.
Of course, nothing about the Tribeca scheme is working, and there is no sign that it ever will. It’s why a group of activists, business owners and artists have mobilised along with the Cathedral Quarter Trust to say a new approach is needed.
The CQT said last week: “We believe there are more environmentally responsible and people-focused ways of developing the area. It is crucial that Belfast moves away from the mantra that ‘any development is good development.’ That approach has led to multiple market failures, dereliction and a lack of resilience. It is time for change.”
Surely the experience of other major cities can serve as a timely warning for those with authority to intervene before our own cities enter the viscous circle of decline.
Anyone who takes a walk around North Street, Rosemary Street, Garfield Street, passing the Assembly Rooms, especially at night time, can see that developer-led dereliction is crippling this part of our capital city. The current status quo represents a failure of policy.
It is great to see our young people having adventures, seeing some of the world, and growing up. But in the end don’t we want them to come back home? That means building a city where people actively aspire to live in, work, visit and spend.
We should all aspire to grow a city to be proud of. And remember that doughnuts are for eating, not for shaping our cities.
- Brendan Mulgrew is managing partner at MW Advocate. Follow him on X at @brendanbelfast.
